Sunday, 2 May 2010

Falsification Of The 11 Year Solar Cycle



We all know that arctic sea ice decline and global temperature rise peaked years ago and have now stopped, effectively falsifying manmade global warming.

A little overlooked variable of climate has also peaked in defiance of so-called "scientists". IPCC climate models predict that solar output should follow an 11 year cycle. According to this "theory", solar activity should now be rising. And at first, probably by fluke, it appeared that was so. But now there's just one problem: The solar cycle hasn't increased for 3 months.

That's right, as the above image shows, solar output peaked in February (marked with a blue circle) and since then has fallen or at best has been flat. It would appear the sun has returned to normal levels. How can the 11 year cycle theory explain this? Solar activity should be increasing, not going flat for three months.

Real science abandons a theory when observations disagree. The observations now disagree with the 11 year solar cycle, so all books claiming there is an 11 year solar cycle should be immediately burnt and the models thrown in the dustbin of history. That's how science should work.

But thanks to the corruption of science by Al Gore, the "solar cycle" theory of the Sun is guaranteed to be kept alive on a wave of grant funding and IPCC meal tickets. If challenged the alarmists will probably resort to typical excuses about short term variation over long term trends just as they do for global temperature and arctic sea ice.

But ask the alarmists this - just what observation would falsify the 11 year solar cycle theory of the sun? How long do we have to go with no increase in solar output until they admit the 11 year solar cycle is a fraud? If nothing can falsify it, it isn't science!

See also the following image of orbit adjusted solar flux and sunspot count. All metrics show a peak in solar output occurred in February and there has been a decline since then. This is completely opposite of what I would expect from my idea of the theory. The 11 year cycle theory of the Sun is evidentially falsified.

Click for larger image. Source: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png

126 comments:

  1. Inferno,

    I salute you! This post is destined to be a classic.

    The similarity between the TSI and global surface temperatures is striking. Your use of graphics to explain this point is simply brilliant.

    One small suggestion: perhaps fit a 7th-order polynomial to the last x-months of data (choose x appropriately). That will really show where the Sun is heading. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sun became a net sink of radiation in a few decades. It is time to start building up a protective layer of CO2 to insulate us from the effects.

    Dirk,
    Blog Science Expert Reviewer
    64 posts to Blog Professorship

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  2. Baron von Monckhofen3 May 2010 at 04:20

    Dirk,

    "It is time to start building up a protective layer of CO2 to insulate us from the effects."

    For chrissake, that would be utterly useless, and we all know why: CO2 has no effect whatsoever on temperature. It is the temperature that controls CO2, like in the ice cores.

    No, the only thing that can save us is wrapping the entire planet in tin foil!

    Boni pastoris est tondere pecus, non deglubere.

    ReplyDelete
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  3. Here is a clear case of the alarmists 'hiding the incline' to prevent any temporary increase in global warming levels being attributed to the Sun.

    This is the height of irresponsibility since we are clearly heading for an ice age as indicated by my temperature readings over a wide range of locations in my garden this winter.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry guys, while this post is outstanding in its denial quality, we shamelessly self-advertise ourselves as denail competitors:

    http://friendsofginandtonic.org/

    We even have the blessings of both, Baron von Monckhausen and his English cousin Viscount Monckton:

    Congratulations on your new group. You will find plenty of friends in the Chamber of Commerce and in the Petroleum Club.
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    The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
    Carie, Rannoch, Scotland, PH17 2QJ

    By the way: who is this charlatan von Monckhofen with his laughable Latin quotes?

    Denegamus!

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  5. I see you have developed a denier IPhone App:

    The Friends of Science iPhone App 1.0

    Finally there is an app for 'generating your own _gate' which simultaneously contains a 'world-communist government alarm'.

    Puts Long John Cook's dreadful skepticalscience.com IPhone App to shame. I sent a long email to Microsoft technical support telling them they were effectively complicit in climate science fraud by allowing such an app on their phones. No response. I guess even Microsoft is run by the UN now.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Microsoft? I thought the iphone was by Blackberry! We buy Canadian, after all. John Cook is just a copycat; the FoS had their iphone app 0.6 during the MWP already when they farmed central Greenland. When Greenland froze over again in the LIA, they moved their cattle stock to Alberta and invented cowboy culture. Prove is that both vikings and cowboys cover their heads.

    ReplyDelete
  7. In Calgary, the hotbed of Canadian climate change denial, there is presently a war between rivaling denier groups. Look at the newspaper for example (links below): Norm K. of Friends of Science against John R. of Shell Canada. Like spy vs. spy. And while they fight, FoGT is taking over the local leadership, collecting protection money from the local oil companies.


    http://www.calgaryherald.com/Absorbent/2968467/story.html

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/life/Science+lesson/2977022/story.html

    ReplyDelete
  8. > We all know that arctic sea ice decline
    > and global temperature rise peaked years ago
    > and have now stopped, effectively falsifying
    > manmade global warming.

    Completely false.

    First, the last 12 months are the warmest 12-mth period in NASA GISS records (see http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/04/12-month-temperature-record.html).

    Sea ice: Of course, the most relevant measure is sea ice volume, not extent. And that's been steadily decreasing. See: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2009/07/arctic-sea-ice-decreasing-in-volume.html

    You are wrong on both counts.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Antimatter Gaz3 May 2010 at 20:17

    You won't get anywhere with that sort of talk here, David Appell! Oh No!

    Evidence is like a red rag to a bull for us.

    Just remember, as Neitszche would have said if faced with the IPCC thought-police cabal: "Battle not with experts, lest ye become an expert, and if you gaze into the evidence, the evidence gazes also into you."

    ReplyDelete
  10. Antimatter Gaz wrote:
    > You won't get anywhere with that sort
    > of talk here, David Appell! Oh No!

    Do you mean, you don't care what the data says?

    All four of the institutions that measure global temperatures have been reporting record highs in the last few months: NASA GISS, HadCRUT3, RSS, and UAH.... Do you believe any of them, or do you rely on some other data source?

    See, for example:

    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/04/hadleys-march-temperature.html

    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/04/noaa-confirms-warmest-march.html

    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/04/12-month-temperature-record.html

    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/04/interesting-recent-numbers.html

    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/05/rss-2nd-warmest-april.html

    ReplyDelete
  11. Baron von Monckhofen4 May 2010 at 00:39

    Enemies of the Enemies of the Science wrote:
    "By the way: who is this charlatan von Monckhofen with his laughable Latin quotes?"

    Graeca sunt, non leguntur! Bona valetudo melior est quam maximae divitiae? Video meliora proboque deteriora sequor. Quem Iuppiter vult perdere dementat prius!

    So typical of the warmist scum to come with ad hominem attacks!

    PS! Ad hominem is latin and means "to advertise for carnal encounters with persons of the same sex". In case you didn't know!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Embroidery4Truth4 May 2010 at 01:40

    David, don't try to hide the decline with your evidence. Your bogus model-derived statistics won't work any more now, Lord Haw Haw our next Prime Minister of the House of Lords for UKIP has proven they are all WRONG.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dr. Inferno, it is with huge relief that I discovered your return to blogging. Blog science has been a shambles in your absence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZilqYp_9-Wc

    ps. Somebody should put David Appell out of his misery. I am so afraid he is serious.

    Meow meow!

    ReplyDelete
  14. And now something completely different:

    FOGT WANTS TO TAKE OVER DENIAL DEPOT IN A HOSTILE TAKEOVER BIT!

    http://friendsofginandtonic.org/

    FoGT, Calgary's leading denialist organisation, attempts to

    (a) take over denial depot in a hostile bit

    We would also take over your employees and pay them minimum wage;if this fails, FoGT attempts to

    (b)open several DenialDepot franchises in Calgary, at least 4 in 2010. This requires a strategic alliance between DD and FoGT.

    In this context, DenialDepot needs restructuring. Additions would be:

    (a) a DD Visa card
    (b) a weekly DD flyer
    (c) a DD iphone app

    Inferno, please contact us at

    fogt (at) telus.net

    or s

    schwein (at) telus.net (Derek L. Schweinsgruber)

    ReplyDelete
  15. Monkhofen,
    Our Monckhausen always says:

    Pecunia not olet.

    Which translates to: "Nothing works without lubrication"

    ReplyDelete
  16. Correction: we were not referring to drill bits but to takeover bids. That's the problem when you are dislcksick.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Ceterum censeo Carthaginem delendam esse

    Therefore I think that the Cato institute must be destroyed!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Yep. Homo hominem lupus est. Poor David.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I was already afraid that you were caught... very pleased to see your wise words again Prof. Inferno.
    I've recently wondered about the image
    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg
    This clearly shows that during the 80s the ice amount was higher than normal then in the 90s normal and now in 00s a silght bit lower than the normal. I mean, doesn't this mean that the ice amount is cyclic and we should be seeing normal amouts of ice this year since we are on the 10s? I just don' t know how to proof that.
    yours Astral student.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Wrinkled Retainer5 May 2010 at 11:35

    Isn't it typical of warmists like David Appell that he would rely on so-called evidence from NASA GISS, HadCRUT3, RSS, and UAH?

    Only a gullible leftist would be unaware that they are part of the great environazi warmofascist conspiracy to enslave the world under a communist government! All their data is corrupted by jet exhausts, air-conditioning outlets, and a LIBERAL dose of LIES, as proven by Saint Anthony Watts! Has he never heard of CLIMATEGATE?

    In any case, this data shows that the planet is cooling, not warming!

    PS Good to see Dr Inferno once again showing that warmists are wrong about everything.

    ReplyDelete
  21. > Only a gullible leftist would
    > be unaware that they are part of
    > the great environazi warmofascist
    > conspiracy to enslave the world
    > under a communist government!

    Paranoid much?

    But then, I'm just someone who believes in actual scientific data.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Is David a shill for Anthony?

    ReplyDelete
  23. > Is David a shill for Anthony?

    Does anyone ever discuss actual science here, or do you all just occupy yourselves with personal attacks?

    ReplyDelete
  24. I thought it was a platform for Latin speakers!

    ReplyDelete
  25. It seems that David Appell is not very good at reading "data" and understanding what it means. Perhaps if he read more of the information on this site, he would realise how wrong he is. Then again, he might carry on insulting us instead?

    ReplyDelete
  26. David Appell wrote: "Does anyone ever discuss actual science here, or do you all just occupy yourselves with personal attacks?"

    Yet another ad hominem! How typical!

    ReplyDelete
  27. If David's not careful.. Spronnnng! B*gger, there goes another irony meter!

    ReplyDelete
  28. What else are we supposed to do now Monty Python's disbanded?

    ReplyDelete
  29. O dear, and another 'denarius climae' as well as Dave Apple, our arbiter elegantium got busted:

    http://friendsofginandtonic.org/page1/files/fb185f69cd34199f707257abfe901fd2-91.html

    Our Dr. Infernus himself would conclude that this marks the start of his UN world socialist government.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Embroidery4Truth7 May 2010 at 21:16

    David has had a very narrow escape because for purely technical reasons the queen cannot summon Lord Monckton to form a government until (1) the sabotage of an airplane carrying one of his UKIP colleagues is investigated and the eco-terrorists responsible are identified, (2) the siege of 10 Downing Street is ended and Gordon Brown is evicted allowing the victorious Lord Mockton to move in, and (3)
    some urgent public order matters such as the rounding up of bicyclists is completed.

    Until these purely technical requirements of our constitution are satisfied, it will not be possible for me to have David Apple imprisoned for trolling and eco-terrorism.

    Make good use of your remaining hours of freedom, David.

    ReplyDelete
  31. To add further proof to the main topic of this post, it has been seriously colder here this week than last week, at least several 10s of degrees. Now that I think of it, since this afternoon it has only got colder here at an alarming rate! (Needless to say these are degrees Fahrenheit, not the unbiblical "sceintific" units that sceintists use)

    ReplyDelete
  32. We deniers are on the descend as temperatures are rising. It has become obvious that the success of denial and the trend of global temperatures are inversely correlated. In times of actual warming, in order to save our incredibility, we have to amplify our message by echo chambering. How could this be done? Phylis Jones and Gavin Kirsch of FoGT (http://friendsofginandtonic.org/) are presently working on a trick to hide the ascent. They would appreciate your cooperation.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Did somebody mention Monty Python?
    http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2009/11/everything-is-ugly.html

    ReplyDelete
  34. Inferno what a wonderful analysis. You are the next Steve McIntyre, I bow before you.
    On one simple post you neatly explain so much. If you worked on string theory I have no doubt you could solve it by lunch time. Oh yeah, can someone remind me does this downturn in the Sun cause warming or cooling? I'm so easily confused by all this sciencey stuff.

    ReplyDelete
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  36. you must feel like an idiot now. solar activity is heating up. northern lights
    reported as south as Chicago.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I see you have completely forgotten to mention the important influence of the earths magnitic field on solar cycles. As we all know the north magnetic pole has allready passed the english alps. This has influenced the earth rotation so much that day is night and night is day! I hope you will update your self on this issue, and not show this shameless ignorance!

    ReplyDelete
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  39. thanks.. this is really nice post...:) thanks for sharing

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  40. David, don't try to hide the decline with your evidence. Your bogus model-derived statistics won't work any more now, Lord Haw Haw our next Prime Minister of the House of Lords for UKIP has proven they are all WRONG.

    ReplyDelete
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